The polls lately have been terrible at predicting actual election results and last Saturday was the perfect example.

In Louisiana, Trump was supposed to dominate the state by winning over 15 points. Instead, he won by less than four (click to enlarge):

louisiana

 
There was only one poll for Kentucky, but it also suggested that Trump would dominate there as well. He won by just over 4 points (click to enlarge):

kentucky

 
And lastly, Trump was expected to win Kansas by at least 6 points, maybe more. But it was a bloodbath with Cruz winning by almost 25 points (click to enlarge):

kansas

 
There was no current polling on Maine but conventional wisdom probably saw Trump or Kasich winning the state. Cruz dominated there as well with at least a 13 point victory.

So when you see one poll saying Trump is winning Idaho by 11 points or another poll saying Trump will win Mississippi by over 20 points, don’t fret. The winds appear to be shifting towards Cruz as we saw last Saturday and if this shift is for real, we’ll know it tonight.


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