Below are the three polls out today on the New Hampshire Republican Primary. The bottom line is that Trump has a strong lead, but the battle for 2nd place is very tight between Cruz and Rubio (and Kasich in the bottom pole).
NBC NEWS – Donald Trump continues to lead Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary after his second-place finish in Iowa, but Marco Rubio has gained ground on him, according to a new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll conducted after the Iowa results.
Trump gets support from 30 percent of likely Republican primary followers — followed by Rubio at 17 percent, Ted Cruz at 15 percent, John Kasich at 10 percent, Jeb Bush at 9 percent and Chris Christie at 4 percent.
Last week — before the results in Iowa, where Cruz finished first and Rubio third — Trump was at 31 percent, Cruz 12 percent, Rubio 11 percent, Kasich 11 percent, Bush 8 percent and Christie 7 percent.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll was conducted Feb. 2-3 of 653 likely Republican primary voters, which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.8 percentage points.
UMASS DAILY TRACKING POLL:
Donald Trump continues to lead among likely Republican primary voters by 19 points with 34 percent of support, but that lead is down another two percentage points since yesterday’s results and four points since the first day’s results of the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll. Marco Rubio – who had previously gained in every day of the tracking poll – remains unchanged from yesterday at 15 percent. Ted Cruz also remains steady at 14 percent. John Kasich gained one point to reach 8 percent and is now tied with Jeb Bush, who saw no change in support from yesterday. Chris Christie remained at 5 percent and both Ben Carson, 4 percent, and Carly Fiorina, 3 percent, saw no change from yesterday.
While most Republican candidates saw no change in support from yesterday, voters are still making up their minds. In addition to the 8 percent who are undecided, 42 percent of those polled say they could change their minds. Support for Trump remains the strongest, with the smallest percentage of voters (26 percent) who said they could change their minds before next week’s primary, followed by Cruz (31 percent). Sixty-two percent of Christie supporters said they could change their minds, followed by 53 percent among Rubio supporters, 51 percent among those for Bush and Carson, 37 among Kasich supporters and 35 percent of those for Fiorina. On the Democratic side, equal numbers (19 percent) of voters who favor Sanders and Clinton reported that they could still change their minds.
N=500 Republican Primary Likely Voters (LVs); Adjusted Margin of Error: +/-4.80% for Rep LVs
ARG DAILY TRACKING POLL:
Sample Size: 420 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in New Hampshire (256 Republicans and 164 undeclared voters (independents)).
Sample Dates: February 3-4, 2016
Margin of Error: ± 5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.