Here’s the first poll by Opinion Savvy which polled 887 likely caucus goers on the 29th and 30th of January who all said they were definitely going to caucus. Their margin of error is +/- 3.2%.
Note that in this new poll Rubio has surged to just below Ted Cruz. In fact Trump, Cruz, and Rubio are virtually tied considering their percentages are well within the margin of error:
Trump.........20.1% Cruz..........19.4% Rubio.........18.6% Carson........9.0% Paul..........8.6% Bush..........4.9% Huckabee......4.4% Kasich........4.0% Fiorina.......3.8% Christie......3.0% Santorum......2.1% Undecided.....2.2%
The second poll is by Emerson who polled 300 likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.6%. Notice they also show a Rubio surge:
In the last poll before the Iowa Caucus, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are virtually tied with Trump at 27% and Cruz 26%. This is a 6-point drop for Trump in one week, as the last Emerson Poll on January 21 had Trump at 33%. In the same period, Marco Rubio’s is at 22% – up 8 points from 14% during the same time period. The rest of the GOP is far behind, all under 5%.
The poll found the decision by front runner Donald Trump to skip the last Republican debate had a negative impact on his support: – 39% of GOP caucus voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump as a result of the boycott, while 14% viewed his absence as enhancing the likelihood they would vote for Trump. Fifty-two percent (52%) judged Trump’s boycott as unimportant in impacting their vote.
“Since our January 21 poll, Trump’s favorability has decreased by 10 points,” said ECPS data analyst Matt Couture, and his decision to boycott the debate seems to be a factor in this decrease”.
Among likely Republican caucus voters, Cruz has a high favorability rating (62% favorable, 33% unfavorable), while Trump has 43% favorable, and 51% unfavorable.
Rubio is perceived favorable – 65% as compared to 25% unfavorable.
Here’s the lowdown on this poll:
The ECPS poll was conducted from January 29 through January 31. The polling sample was a random selection of registered voters purchased through Aristotle Inc. Likely primary voters were classified through a screening question. For non-completes with a working residential phone line, at least five callbacks were attempted. The Democratic and GOP Presidential primaries consisted of 300 and 298 adult registered likely primary voters in Iowa, with a margin of error of +/-5.6% respectively, at a 95 percent confidence level, was used for the additional statewide questions.
The last poll is by Quinnipiac who surveyed 890 likely Republican caucus goers from January 25 to 31 with a margin or error of +/- 3.3%.
This poll suggests that Cruz is losing momentum while Rubio is gaining strength. In the last poll Cruz had 29% and now has dropped to 24%. Rubio had 13% and has increased to 17%. Trump’s numbers haven’t changed.
Fueled by a big lead among first-time Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, Donald Trump jumps to a 31 – 24 percent lead over Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida has 17 percent, with Dr. Ben Carson at 8 percent and no other candidate above 4 percent.
This compares to results of a January 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 31 percent, Cruz at 29 percent and Rubio at 13 percent.
Today, 3 percent are undecided and 28 percent of those who name a candidate say they still might change their mind.
“The size of the turnout tonight will likely be the key factor, especially on the Democratic side,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “High turnouts with lots of new caucus participants likely would mean a good night for Sen. Bernie Sanders, and for Donald Trump.”
“Trump holds his own, while Sen. Ted Cruz seems to lose momentum in this final Quinnipiac University poll, finished less than 24 hours before the caucuses begin. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is showing some last-minute strength, raising the longshot possibility he could challenge for second place,” Brown added. Republican Caucus
Here’s the lowdown:
From January 25 – 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 890 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points and 919 Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
So there you have it. Tonight’s vote should be very interesting to see not just who comes out on top, but who finishes well and who drops out tomorrow.