Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has on his website this weekend a new essay bashing the notion that the war to remove Saddam Hussein was the cause of the madness currently engulfing the nation at the hands of ISIS. He also admonishes the Obama policies that fail to recognize the real problems, and that give up too soon on real solutions.
“The civil war in Syria with its attendant disintegration is having its predictable and malign effect. Iraq is now in mortal danger. The whole of the Middle East is under threat,” says Blair, setting the very grave tone any assessment of the current situation must necessarily adopt. He goes on:
“It is inevitable that events in Mosul have led to a re-run of the arguments over the decision to remove Saddam Hussein in 2003. The key question obviously is what to do now. But because some of the commentary has gone immediately to claim that but for that decision, Iraq would not be facing this challenge; or even more extraordinary, implying that but for the decision, the Middle East would be at peace right now; it is necessary that certain points are made forcefully before putting forward a solution to what is happening now.”
This setup leads into a brief history of the conflict in Syria as well as an exploration of the hypothetical state of affairs were Saddam Hussein still in power. His conclusion is that, inevitably, the situation today would be exactly as dire, with ISIS undertaking the same action, even had Saddam remained in power. Indeed, he suggests the situation might even be worse. He therefore concludes:
So it is a bizarre reading of the cauldron that is the Middle East today, to claim that but for the removal of Saddam, we would not have a crisis.
Blair explains the reality of the situation as being one from inside the Middle East, not from without.
The reality is that the whole of the Middle East and beyond is going through a huge, agonising and protracted transition. We have to liberate ourselves from the notion that ‘we’ have caused this. We haven’t. We can argue as to whether our policies at points have helped or not; and whether action or inaction is the best policy and there is a lot to be said on both sides. But the fundamental cause of the crisis lies within the region not outside it.
The problems of the Middle East are the product of bad systems of politics mixed with a bad abuse of religion going back over a long time. Poor governance, weak institutions, oppressive rule and a failure within parts of Islam to work out a sensible relationship between religion and Government have combined to create countries which are simply unprepared for the modern world. Put into that mix, young populations with no effective job opportunities and education systems that do not correspond to the requirements of the future economy, and you have a toxic, inherently unstable matrix of factors that was always – repeat always – going to lead to a revolution.
This gets right to the heart of the problem we face in the press and, indeed, in the White House. With a government and a lapdog media that blame the Bush Adminstration for terrorism, along with every other problem Obama faces and is unable to resolve, it is natural and, to their minds, completely obvious to blame Bush and American foreign policy for the current crisis in Iraq. But as always with the Middle East and Islamic terror, blaming the victim is merely convenient, not accurate or prudent.
Besides which, if they really want to blame America, they should do so with an eye to what we can do to stop this or contain it in the future. That much, at least, remains under our control. We still have the opportunity to act and react. We may not be responsible for causing this collapse, but if we fail to intervene, will history hold us responsible for not stopping it? The establishment of this caliphate in the region can only prove bad for American interests and national security. Pray for a resolution in America’s favor. As Tony Blair says:
The point is that we won’t win the fight until we accept the nature of it.
Iraq is part of a much bigger picture. By all means argue about the wisdom of earlier decisions. But it is the decisions now that will matter. The choices are all pretty ugly, it is true. But for 3 years we have watched Syria descend into the abyss and as it is going down, it is slowly but surely wrapping its cords around us pulling us down with it. We have to put aside the differences of the past and act now to save the future.