tedcruz

Trump is NOT going to like this new Texas poll


In a brand new Texas poll out today, Ted Cruz’s lead is getting close to double digits as he leads the Trumpster by 8:

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Here’s more:

TEXAS TRIBUNE – With a week remaining before the Texas Republican primary, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has an 8-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

“These numbers reflect what most of us think was going on in Texas: It’s decent ground for Donald Trump because he’s a national candidate who’s touched a nerve everywhere, but it displays a little bit of a homefield advantage for Ted Cruz,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

What looked like a three-candidate race coming out of South Carolina looks more like a two-person race in Texas, with Cruz and Trump almost certainly in position to split the state’s 155 Republican delegates. Among likely Republican primary voters who identify with the Tea Party, Cruz leads Trump 56 percent to 26 percent in the UT/TT Poll. Among voters who identify as Republicans when given the choice to bolt for the Tea Party, the candidates were relatively even: Cruz had 32 percent to Trump’s 30 percent. Rubio had 18 percent of those voters, and 8 percent of those who identify with the Tea Party.

Here’s the lowdown:

The University of Texas/Texas Tribune Internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from Feb. 12 to Feb. 19 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.48 percentage points. Among registered voters in Republican primary races, the margin of error is +/- 4.21 percentage points; in Democratic primary races, it is +/- 5.44 percentage points. Numbers in charts might not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.

And here’s how the delegates work in Texas:

EL PASO HERALD POST – The Republicans have 2,472 national delegates, including 155 from Texas. It’ll take 1,237 to win.

The state GOP doles out delegates in two batches: 47 of them are awarded based on statewide results, and 108 are awarded based on the results in each of the state’s 36 congressional districts.

How many a candidate gets depends on how well the candidate does. Winning more than half of the state votes gets a candidate all of the 47 delegates at stake. If the top candidate has fewer than half of the votes, the delegates are assigned on a proportional basis, but there is a nuance there, too. If the lead candidate is the only one with more than 20 percent of the vote, that candidate splits delegates on a proportional basis with the second-place finisher.

Nobody else gets any delegates. If more than one candidate gets 20 percent or more, each of them gets delegates on a proportional basis. And if no candidate gets more than 20 percent, all of the candidates win delegates based on each one’s proportion of the vote.

At the congressional district level, 108 delegates are at stake — three in each of the state’s 36 districts. The rules are similar to those for divvying up statewide delegates. A candidate with more than half of the votes in a district gets all three of that district’s delegates. If at least one breaks 20 percent (but not 50), the top finisher gets two delegates and the second-place finisher gets one. If no candidate breaks 20 percent in a district, each of the top three finishers gets one delegate.

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