Understanding Israeli Politics: Netanyahu party wins but Likud takes a hit

Before I share with you the results of the election in Israel, have a quick read of this simple primer by CBN News to better understand the basics:

Instead of a two-party system, more than 30 jam Israel’s political landscape. They compete for 120 seats in Israel’s parliament.

Whoever wins the most seats must hammer together a coalition of 60 or more players to form the next government.

Like the United States, Israeli parties fall into the left or right. Dominating the right is the joint party of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Leiberman called Likud-Beiteinu. On the left of the spectrum is the Labor Party.

Pretty simple. The right needs a 61 seat majority coalition to effectively govern. Actually, that’s not so simple according to the results from Israel National News:

With 99 percent of the votes counted, it seems that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may have a hard time creating the next coalition. Despite Netanyahu’s significant lead over rival parties, the right-wing and left-wing blocs are now evenly matched with 60 seats each.

Netanyahu’s Likud, which ran together with Yisrael Beytenu, took 31 seats. In second place is Yesh Atid with 19 seats, followed by Labor with 17.

Shas and Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home) won 11 seats each. Yahadut HaTorah (Gimmel) got 7 seats, an increase over its current six.

Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua party got 6 seats, the Jewish-Arab Hadash party took 4 4, Meretz appears to have 6, the other Arab parties together earned 7, and Kadima appears to have passed the voting threshold with just 2 seats. Otzma L’Yisrael (Strong Israel, led by MK Michael Ben Ari) may not have made it into the Knesset.

While the numbers do not quite add up, as the final calculations have not been completed, the final breakdown will apparently leave current coalition members Likud, Bayit Yehudi and the hareidi-religious parties Shas and Yahadut HaTorah with a total of 60 seats, and Yesh Atid, Labor, Hatenua, Meretz, Kadima and the Arab parties with a total of 60 seats.

I think this is probably the best explanation of what happened – at least on a basic level. Read further analysis by David Horowitz at the Times of Israel:

Israel voted for change, and moved a little from right to center; Lapid is the big success but Netanyahu is still a winner, albeit battered and constrained.

1. Israel did not move to the right Remarkably, given the regional instability and consequent Israeli wariness, the right-wing bloc took a bit of a pasting. It’s a more hawkish right-wing bloc, but it’s a smaller one, somewhat less able to get its own way. Instead, Israel moved a little to the center, as exemplified by the remarkable debut of Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid. What does this mean for the big regional issues, and especially for interaction with the Palestinians? Well, that depends on the nature of the coalition. And for that, we may have to wait a while.

2. Netanyahu is battered but he’s still a winner… almost certainly, with some serious caveats – You go into national politics because you want to lead your nation. And once you’ve made it to prime minister, you go into your next elections in order to remain prime minister. That’s what Netanyahu has apparently managed, unless the soldiers’ votes and other final adjustments in the next couple of days improbably change the delicate Knesset arithmetic to his detriment. This despite Netanyahu not being particularly popular and being a very well-known quantity in an election where many voters plainly favored the fresh, inexperienced and unsullied candidates. Tuesday’s was a vote for change. Dozens upon dozens of sitting Knesset members were swept aside. But Netanyahu rolled with the wave, and here he is again.

3. But his Likud party is a big loser – The Likud held 27 seats in the last Knesset. Now it will have only 20 — out of the 31-strong incoming Likud-Beytenu faction. Brace for lots of bitterness in the Likud. Lots of recriminations. The partnership with Avigdor Liberman meant that Netanyahu heads the biggest faction, so that’s hunky dory for him. But Likud lost right-wing votes to Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home, and Yisrael Beytenu lost Russian votes to Yesh Atid. Many of the prime minister’s party colleagues are feeling rather less celebratory than he is today.

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