The Trumpinator keeps promising that he will, indeed, win over Hispanics, but a new poll says that task might be rather daunting for the populist billionaire.
U.S. Hispanics are still getting to know most of the Republican contenders for president. At this point in the campaign, less than half have formed an opinion of any Republican candidate except Donald Trump and Jeb Bush. Partly because of this, Hispanics’ views of most GOP candidates range from mildly positive to mildly negative. The sole exception is Trump, whose favorable rating with Hispanics is deeply negative.
Gallup began tracking the images of all the major announced candidates for president nightly in early July. Since then, 14% of the roughly 650 Hispanics interviewed have said they view Trump favorably, while 65% have viewed him unfavorably, yielding a net favorable score of -51. This separates Trump from the next-most-unpopular Republicans among Hispanics — Rick Perry (-7), Ted Cruz (-7) and Jim Gilmore (-6), who are viewed far less negatively.
Bush presents the greatest contrast to Trump. Bush’s average 34% favorable and 23% unfavorable ratings among Hispanics since July give him a +11 net favorable score — the highest of any GOP candidate. The net favorable scores of Marco Rubio (+5), Carly Fiorina (+3), George Pataki (+3), Scott Walker (+2) and Ben Carson (+2) all tilt slightly positive, although none of these candidates is nearly as well-known among Hispanics as Trump and Bush.
In terms of familiarity, only Trump and Bush are recognized by a majority of Hispanics. Eight in 10 have formed an opinion of Trump and about six in 10 of Bush. Familiarity dwindles to roughly 40% for Rubio and Cruz, both Cuban-Americans, as well as for Perry and Chris Christie, but drops well below that for all the others. (See the full ratings in the tables at the end.)
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-Aug. 23, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 2,183 Hispanic adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Each candidate was rated by a random subset of respondents during this period, with the sample sizes rating each candidate averaging approximately 700 Hispanics. For results based on the total sample of Hispanics, aged 18 and older, the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.
Well, whatever you might say about the debate over Trump, it’s pretty clear that Hispanics like Jeb! much more than the Toupee. Maybe it’s the hair?
However, as el Scoopero pointed out to me, this is a completely random sample of Hispanics. It would have been better to assess how he’s doing among registered voters, or likely voters. And of course, the primary election is still a long ways away, but it looks like Hispanics are saying “SI SE JEBE!!” right now.