In a YouGov survey of likely voters, the support for el Trumpo has absolutely imploded by thirty points, giving Rubio and Cruz a huge opportunity to claim the frontrunner status.

Importantly, voters are not ready to count Donald Trump out. Two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters describe his second-place finish in Iowa as more of a “temporary setback” than a sign of serious trouble for his campaign. 54% expect Trump to win the New Hampshire primary, where he remains ahead according to recent polls.

But when asked who is most likely to win the primary overall, only 27% of Republicans cite Trump, down 30 points from a poll conducted just days before caucus night. 29% now expect Marco Rubio to be the nominee, following the Florida senator’s surprisingly strong finish in Iowa. Last week, only 9% thought Rubio was most likely to win. Expectations for Ted Cruz, at 24%, are slightly behind Cruz and Trump. No other candidate is higher than 2%.

The same shift took place among the public at large. 43% of Americans thought Trump would eventually be the nominee pre-Iowa; that number has dropped to 24%.

Wow. I guess you have to say that if it’s willing to collapse so quickly that it’s also liable to increase by that much.

But it kinda points to the fickle nature of the Donald’s supporters, who told pollsters they would caucus for him, but just didn’t show up on election day.


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