Ted Cruz has surged to the top in this new Iowa poll by Monmouth University, showing Cruz now has a 5 point lead over Donald Trump:
POLITICO – Stoked by evangelical and tea-party support, Ted Cruz has surged to first place in Iowa, according to the results of a Monmouth University poll released Monday surveying voters likely to participate in the Republican caucus on Feb. 1.
Cruz earned 24 percent of support among likely caucus-goers, with 19 percent opting for Donald Trump, whose polling advantage in the state has dwindled in recent weeks. In a Quinnipiac University survey conducted in mid-November, Trump held a slim 25 percent to 23 percent advantage over Cruz, while retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson finished with 18 percent.
In this survey, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finished third with 17 percent, followed by 13 percent for Carson (a 19-point drop from October), 6 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 4 percent for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, 3 percent for former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and 2 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. All other candidates finished with 1 percent or less support, with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent describing themselves as “uncommitted.”
Cruz’s advantage comes largely at the expense of Carson, who less than two months ago led the state’s Monmouth poll by a 14-point margin over Trump.
Ben Carson losing 19 points since October is huge, as many of his supporters appear to be moving to Cruz. And it couldn’t be happening at a better time.
Here’s the poll history including the new results:
Here’s the lowdown on the poll:
The poll was conducted Dec. 3-6, surveying via landlines and cellphones 425 registered voters who voted in at least one of the last two state primary elections, voted in both the 2012 and 2014 general elections or who have registered to vote in the past year. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.