According to a new poll from Florida, Trump’s lead isn’t nearly as big as it has been, which might give his competitors an opportunity to seize the state’s delegates from him.
— Jessica Williams, MD (@JYW666) March 5, 2016
From the Miami Herald:
A new poll by an anti-Donald Trump group has found a narrowing Republican presidential race in Florida, suggesting the barrage of TV ads by the group and its allies might be taking effect.
Trump leads Marco Rubio 35-30 percent ahead of the March 15 primary, according to the poll conducted for Our Principles PAC by The Tarrance Group, a Republican firm, and obtained by the Miami Herald. Ted Cruz drew 16 percent support, John Kasich 9 percent and Ben Carson 5 percent. (Carson formally dropped out Friday.) Six percent of respondents were undecided.
Earlier polls by other firms have suggested a wider — in some cases, much wider — margin between Trump and Rubio. The Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found Trump ahead by 20 percentage points, Quinnipiac University by 16 points and Associated Industries of Florida by 7 points. All those polls were conducted last week, before Our Priorities and two other groups — American Future Fund and Club for Growth — unleashed their anti-Trump advertising.
It must be pointed out that this polling was publicized by an anti-Trump group, and even if there aren’t any shenanigans going on, it could be an outlier. On the other hand, if this and another poll from Kansas are accurate, then the Donald’s support may be seeing the beginnings of a major drop.
The Herald offered these details of the poll methodology:
Tarrance is a well-known polling firm, and it surveyed 800 likely voters using live telephone calls from Feb. 29-March 2. The poll’s error margin was 3.5 percentage points.