There’s a new NPR/PBS/Marist poll out just now that reveals some not-so-great news and then some really great news!
NEW: /Marist Poll:
Plurality of Americans find Ford more credible than Kavanaugh. If doubts linger, a majority say Kavanaugh should not be confirmed.
BUT, Kavanaugh’s nomination has FIRED UP up the Republican base, and the wide Dem enthusiasm advantage has disappeared.
— Heidi Przybyla (@HeidiPrzybyla) October 3, 2018
We’ll focus on the really great news, as did NPR:
Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were “very important.” Now, that’s down to 2 points, a statistical tie.
Here’s a comparison of July and October:
More slicing and dicing:
Democrats’ advantage on which party Americans want to control Congress has also been cut in half since last month. Democrats still retain a 6-point edge on that question, but it was 12 points after a Marist poll conducted in mid-September.
But with Democrats already up fired up for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base.
“The result of hearings, at least in short run, is the Republican base was awakened,” noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.
While Democrats and Republicans are now equally enthusiastic about the midterms, the story is very different for key Democratic base groups and independents. While 82 percent of Democrats say the midterms are very important, that’s true of just 60 percent of people under 30, 61 percent of Latinos and 65 percent of independents.
Democrats need to net 23 seats to take back control of the House, but if those groups stay home in large numbers, it would blunt potential Democratic gains. With 34 days to go until Election Day, it all points to another election dominated by party activists.
Note that this was conducted among registered voters:
The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll was conducted Monday. This question was asked of 996 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
And apparently the poll was biased:
So give all of that, just imagine how enthusiastic likely Republican voters really are after this Kavanaugh fight. Democrats should be very worried now that they’ve completely jumped the shark over Kavanaugh.