Andrew McCarthy writes today in his NRO column that the news of David Pecker’s immunity from prosecution, that is being furiously reported by the MSM, likely has less to do with anything going forward and more to do with shoring up the Cohen case months ago.
NRO – There is always a lag between when things happen and when we learn about them through media reports. That is important to bear in mind when there are breathless news accounts of the kind that broke on Thursday: the revelation that federal prosecutors in New York granted immunity from prosecution to David J. Pecker, the chairman and CEO of American Media Inc. (AMI) and longtime friend of Donald Trump.
American Media controls the National Enquirer, which was deeply involved in the hush-money payments to two women who allege that they had extramarital liaisons with Donald Trump a dozen years ago and whose silence was purchased when they sought to sell their stories prior to the 2016 election. Naturally, coming on the heels of Tuesday’s guilty plea by Michael Cohen to campaign-finance offenses arising out of those two transactions, there was frenzied speculation that the investigation is heating up, with the noose tightening around the president.
In reality, there is almost certainly much less here than meets the eye. In short, while we are just now learning that Pecker and his subordinate, Dylan Howard, were granted immunity, this appears to have happened many weeks ago — to be precise, shortly after search warrants were executed in April on the office and residences of Cohen, President Trump’s former lawyer. Back then, prosecutors did not know whether Cohen would fight them or plead guilty. They needed Pecker and Howard in order to tighten up the case against Cohen, not necessarily to make a case on the president.
Perusing the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Vanity Fair reports (here, here, and here), we find something important is missing: They don’t tell us when Pecker and Howard got immunity. But we get a hint. The Times tells us: “In spring 2018, prosecutors subpoenaed communications between Mr. Pecker and Mr. Howard.” We also know that information from Pecker and Howard is reflected in the eight-count criminal information filed against Cohen, which refers to them, respectively, as “Chairman-1” and “Executive-1.” (AMI is “Corporation-1” and the Enquirer is “Magazine-1.”)
We can therefore deduce that the immunity was granted sometime after the April Cohen searches and the “spring” subpoena for Pecker-Howard communications, but well before this week, when the charges were filed and Cohen pled guilty. I am betting it happened very soon after the subpoenas because, as the Journal explains, prosecutors had a heavy hammer: AMI is in deep financial trouble. Criminal charges would likely be fatal, and AMI had potential criminal exposure because it conducted itself more as an adjunct of the Trump campaign than as a media outlet.
We can grasp the role Pecker and Howard played in building the prosecutors’ case against Cohen by scrutinizing the charges to which Cohen pled guilty.
He goes on to point out:
Though the immunity agreements are just being reported on now, they appear to have been driven by the prosecutors’ need, three months ago, to shore up their case against Cohen. It is not clear that they signal an ongoing effort to make a case against the president. To be sure, if there is such an effort, the AMI angle would be relevant. But the immunity agreements are not a new development.
And…
As I pointed out in Wednesday’s column, the president is by no means out of the woods on this. There is potential aiding and abetting liability; even though candidates have no spending limits, there are reporting requirements; and just as it is illegal for donors to make unlawful contributions, it is illegal for candidates to accept illegal contributions. I will have more to say about this in the weekend column. For now, suffice it to say that I believe the president’s best defense here is that prosecutors could not possibly prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he intended to violate campaign finance laws, rather than that there were no such violations (which is a colorable claim but a highly debatable one).
Just thought you should know that this is essentially old news being presented as something very recent, and that’s an important detail. However don’t be surprised if Mueller goes down this road and tries to flip Pecker against Trump.
Also, remember that two days ago Trump reminded everyone that Obama also had ‘BIG’ campaign finance violations, but that they were easily settled:
Michael Cohen plead guilty to two counts of campaign finance violations that are not a crime. President Obama had a big campaign finance violation and it was easily settled!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 22, 2018