In a poll of likely caucus goers from Iowa State, Ted Cruz is far ahead of Donald Trump by a large margin.
As the candidates make their final push across Iowa, many caucus-goers are still trying to decide which candidate they’ll support. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz lead their respective parties, according to a new Iowa State University/WHO-HD Iowa Caucus Poll released Monday. However, there is little room separating them from the next candidate.
On the Democratic side, 47.4 percent of likely caucus-goers surveyed said they support Clinton. That’s compared to 45 percent who said they favor Bernie Sanders. This is a significant jump from the first Iowa Caucus Poll in November, in which Sanders came in a distant second at 27.8 percent. Less than 1 percent of those surveyed in this latest poll said they’ll caucus for Martin O’Malley.
On the Republican side, 25.8 percent of likely caucus-goers are backing Cruz, while 18.9 percent say they support Donald Trump. Ben Carson came in third (13.4 percent) followed by Marco Rubio (12.3 percent), Rand Paul (6.9 percent), Jeb Bush (3.8 percent), Mike Huckabee (3.7 percent) and Carly Fiorina (1.1 percent). Rick Santorum, Chris Christie and John Kasich registered less than 1 percent.
With the Iowa caucuses just days away, more than one-third (34.2 percent) of those surveyed have yet to make up their mind. And 27 percent said they’ve changed their mind over the course of the campaign. Mack Shelley, university professor and chair of political science and professor of statistics, says respondents changed their mind based on electability or after learning something about a different candidate.
With a difference of 6.9 percentage points, Cruz beats Trump even if the entire margin of error swings to the Donald’s way.
That’s YUGE for Cruz because so many of the other polls are just done with the general public. Others have pointed out that Cruz has a very organized ground game in Iowa whereas Trump seems to be winging it. So are we looking at a Cuban upset in Iowa?! Stay tuned…