Dana Perino wants to make sure that the 2012 poll delusion doesn’t happen again in 2016, so she took to Twitter last night to give her honest assessment of the election:
Getting a few things off of my chest cold: When it comes to political analysis, I make you a promise – I will never lie to you.
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
Many of you write, wanting me to tell you GOOD things about the gop chances this year. I wish I could do that. But I WILL NOT LIE TO YOU.
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
In 2012, I fell for "the polls are wrong" mantra. I felt sick election night, realizing I'd been suckered into a fall sense of complacency.
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
Romney was not going to win in spite of the "rigged polls" – and I vowed that night that I would NEVER EVER fall for that again
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
The Dems start with 242 electoral college votes to win. They need 270. Even I can do that math – it isn't hard.
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
Sure there are 11 weeks to go and a lot could change. I expect the polls to tighten a lot after Labor Day. But you can't win a general…
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
…Election with the current state of campaign. Think of how fast 11 weeks goes. Nov 8th will be here before you can buy any Xmas presents.
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
Some of you call me Debbie Downer, Negative Nancy, or even Pollyanna. I've been called a Pragmatic Snob (is there such a thing?)
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
But I will not lie to you about the state of this race. I won't do it. No amount of peer pressure digital or otherwise can move me.
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
So I'm going to keep being a voice that says yes on the one hand but not the OTHER FREAKING HAND, the future of this party is at risk.
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
Maybe you want the party to be at risk. maybe it SHOULD be at risk. But I won't be a party to delusion that crowds > established polls
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
And with that, I'm taking NyQuil, sniffing some Afrin, and GOING TO BED WITH JASPER! (peter is away on business!!)
— Dana Perino (@DanaPerino) August 18, 2016
I think there is far more of a consensus this year than there ever was in 2012 that the GOP is going to lose the presidential election. And they will likely take a big hit in the Senate and the House.
Perino is right to point this out, as there certainly are some suggesting the polls don’t matter. Sure, the polls can’t tell us who will win in November. A lot can happen between now and then.
But the polls do tell us how everyone feels about the candidates now and considering that both Trump and Hillary are very well known to the masses, it’s not likely there will be huge shifts in future opinion versus where it is now.
Trump can certainly still win, but not at the rate he is currently going. Downward seems to be his current trajectory even if he thinks he’s going to be Mr. Brexit.