Here’s your Election Eve poll ROUNDUP! And comparison to 2012!

by SooperMexican

IF the polls can be believed, which they can’t because they’re all rigged by Hillary, it’s not looking too spiffy for the toupee’d totalitarian.

Yahoo had a great roundup:

 • Clinton +4: An ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Monday showed the Democratic nominee with a 4-point lead (47 percent to 43 percent) over her Republican rival. The survey of 1,763 likely U.S. voters, conducted late last week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, according to the Washington Post.

• Clinton +4: A CBS News survey released on the same day also shows Clinton holding a 4-point advantage (45 percent to 41 percent) over Trump. That poll, conducted Nov. 2-6 among 1,753 U.S. adults, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, the network said.

• Clinton +4: A Fox News poll, released on Monday, too, again shows Clinton with a 4-point lead (48 percent to 44 percent) over Trump. The Fox survey, conducted Nov. 3-6 among a random national sample of 1,410 registered voters, has a margin of error of 2.5 points.

• Clinton +6: A Monmouth University poll released Monday has Clinton currently ahead of Donald Trump by 6 points (50 percent to 46 percent) among likely voters. The poll, conducted Nov. 3-6 among 802 registered voters, has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

• Clinton +3: A separate Bloomberg Politics survey released earlier on Monday showed the former secretary of state with a 3-point lead (46 percent to 43 percent) over the brash real estate mogul. According to Bloomberg, the survey — conducted Nov. 4-6 among 799 likely voters — has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

• Clinton +4: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday put Clinton ahead by 4 points (44 percent to 40 percent). The survey of more than 1,200 likely voters was conducted Nov. 3-5 and has a margin of error of 2.7 points.

But what’s even MORE interesting is when you compare them to the last election’s roundup:

 ABC/WaPo: Obama +3
• Pew: Obama +3
• NBC/WSJ: Obama +1
• CBS/NYT: Obama +1
• CNN: Tie
• Fox News: Tie
• Gallup: Romney +1

Dang. Obama went on to win by four percentage points, and the polling was much closer back then. So. That ain’t no good for the orange-visaged vulgarian.

NOW, if you’re a Trumper, God help you, but if you’re a Trumper, and want some hope to tide you over until tomorrow when all hopes are dashed away, here’s what how he explains it:

Herding means they’re coming to a consensus by watching other polls so that they’re not too embarrassed if they’re way off. Here’s Silver explaining it:

It’s time to stop worrying about outliers and start worrying about inliers. Earlier this year, my colleague Harry Enten documented evidence of pollster “herding” — the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign.1 What’s wrong with the polls agreeing with one another? The problem is that it’s sometimes a case of the blind leading the blind.

But if you’re a Trumper you’re already denying reality:

Er, yeah good luck with that. By the way, Fox News poll has more states going back to “toss up” status, BUT with Hillary still holding a YUGE edge. No wonder Bill hates it. You can check out their election map prediction here.


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