So the exit polling from the New Hampshire primary election have been released. Here’s what we can decipher from them.

This is not good for Rubio when almost universally pundits said he did very poorly with his robot routine at the debate.

That is amazing. When your rate of Evangelical voter dives by a third, you know it’s gonna hurt candidates like Cruz and Carson.

Also New Hampshire is filled with Godless heathens.

From ABC News:

Nearly half of Republicans say they’re looking for a candidate from “outside the political establishment” – sentiment that’s boosted Donald Trump in Iowa and in national polls alike. On the Democratic side, fewer, about a quarter, are looking for an outsider.

While this will help Trump, how is it that Kasich is doing so well? And it’s not good for Bernie even though he’s way up in the polls. Kinda surprising.

There are plenty of self-identified late deciders, especially on the GOP side: Nearly half of Republican primary voters in these preliminary New Hampshire exit poll results say they finally picked their candidate only within the last few days. Fewer Democrats are later deciders, about two in 10.

This might help Trump, who had very little ground game in New Hampshire until Ted Cruz lit his toupee on fire in Iowa – he’s been hitting the state hard in the latter days, which might hold his polling advantage.

Strong conservatives account for three in 10 GOP voters in New Hampshire, vs. 40 percent in Iowa. That said, three-quarters in New Hampshire are conservatives overall in these preliminary results, up sharply from 53 percent in the 2012 primary.

Although this might be good for more conservative candidates, it’s also self-defining – I wonder if New Hampshire might have more left-leaning definitions of what it means to be conservative.

This is not great for Trump, and doesn’t really fit with this either:

C’mon, you can’t be more xenophobic against one group than another, it’s against the rules New Hampshire!!!!!!

NO YOUTH SURGE for Sanders!!!

Roughly one in seven Democratic voters is younger than 30 in preliminary results, similar to recent years. They were a remarkably strong group for Sanders in Iowa, where he won 84 percent of caucus-goers younger than 30. On the other end, more than two in 10 voters are seniors, up from 13 percent in 2008, and Clinton’s best age group in Iowa.

And the oldies increased for Hillary? That portends a slimmer win than what the polls show for Bernie.

But remember our lesson from 2012 – the exit polls are utterly worthless as predictors of the actual election. Hmmm. In retrospect I should have mentioned at the beginning of the post.


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