Today is New York’s primary election day where the big contest isn’t about who wins New York. After all it is Trumpertantrum’s home state, so he’s expected to dominate. No the big contest is really about the delegates, whether or not voters will keep Trump from winning over 50% of the vote to minimize the number of delegates he wins.
There are 95 delegates available tonight and New York is a proportional state. It is also a closed primary.
Here’s how the 95 delegates are divided up, according to FiveThirtyEight:
New York awards 14 delegates proportionally based on the statewide results, with a 50 percent winner-take-all trigger, and Trump has a decent chance to win that entire pot. Another 81 delegates will be given out by congressional district — three per district. Win a district with a plurality, and you get two of those delegates, but win with a majority and you get all three.
So if Cruz can win some congressional districts and voters keep Trump from getting over 50%, this might be a big night.
Voting ends tonight at 9pm and I fully expect the winner to be declared immediately.
Here is a congressional district map of New York that you may find useful tonight:
Election Results:
Now for something more hopeful. If you remember, here is what the delegate count looked like AFTER Wisconsin:
And here is what the delegate count looks like NOW, before tonight’s election results:
So Cruz has basically done a lot of winning lately and his 42 delegate sweep will somewhat blunt whatever Trump wins tonight. That said, Kasich will likely prove once again to be the spoiler, keeping Cruz from winning votes and delegates. Here’s hoping for a miracle.
Remember Trump is EXPECTED to win tonight, so winning itself isn’t a big victory. Getting over the 50% mark, especially in congressional districts, could however be big for Trump.
Here’s a little Heidi Cruz from this morning for you to watch while you wait for election night to unfold: