Fox News is out with new poll showing Doug Jones trouncing Roy Moore by 10 points:
Democrat Doug Jones holds a 10-point lead over Republican Roy Moore among likely voters in deep red Alabama.
Greater party loyalty plus higher interest in the election among Democrats combined with more enthusiasm among Jones supporters gives him the advantage in the race to fill the U.S. senate seat previously held by U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
That’s according to a Fox News Poll of Alabama voters conducted Thursday through Sunday using traditional polling techniques, including a list-based probability sample with both landlines and cellphones.
Jones receives 50 percent to Moore’s 40 percent, with 1-in-10 undecided (8 percent) or supporting another candidate (2 percent) — which could make a difference Tuesday. That’s even truer with such an unconventional election with unconventional candidates.
This race’s uniqueness is significant. It is impossible to know who will show up to vote in a special election to fill a seat in the middle of a term in an off-year. And it’s December, a time when people expect to be going to the shopping mall, not the voting booth.
On top of that, accusations of sexual misconduct against Moore emerged November 9. That’s just a month before the December 12 election. Since then, he has repeatedly denied the allegations, and after the GOP initially pulled its support, the party ultimately backed Moore.
By a 6-point margin, Alabama voters believe the allegations against Moore are true (39-33 percent). They were more evenly divided last month, believing the accusations by just 1 point (38-37 percent). About one quarter, 27 percent, feel it is too soon to say or have no opinion.
Among Republicans, 13 percent believe the accusations are true, 60 percent say they aren’t, and 26 percent are unsure. In November, it was 13-62 percent (26 percent unsure).
The most important number in the Fox News poll is the 29%(!!!) of independents who don't know/won't say. That's a HUGE number. pic.twitter.com/dsgylHG0MA— Jonathan Allen (@jonallendc) December 11, 2017
Here’s the lowdown:
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted December 7-10, 2017, by telephone (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among a sample of 1,127 voters selected from a statewide voter file in Alabama. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for the full sample of likely voters. For the sample of 1,408 registered voters it is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
As you can see from the summary of polling on this race, this Fox News poll is clearly an outlier (click to enlarge):
Note that the Emmerson poll in the chart above also came out today and has Moore up by 9 points.
So we’ll see tomorrow just how good or bad this poll from Fox News really is when the votes are tallied.