While Romney isn’t winning the head to head battle in a new battleground state poll as it’s a statistical tie with Obama at 49 and Romney at 48, Politico reports that when you look beneath the hood Romney is ahead in both enthusiasm and independents:
Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats.
Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.
Romney now leads among independents by 16 points, 51 percent to 35 percent. This is up from 4 points last week.
Also it’s worth noting that this poll was taken mostly before the debate:
This poll was in the field last Monday through Thursday, but about 85 percent of the calls were made before the debate on Wednesday night. The final night of tracking was good for Romney, but it’s not a big enough sample to report. So this does not reflect any momentum Romney might get from his performance in Denver.
Erick Erickson is out with an article today saying that if the election were held today, he believes Romney would win:
There will still be ups and downs between now and Election Day. Mitt Romney could still blow it. The President could be resurgent in future debates. After all, past Presidents have mostly always lost the first debate. Americans could decide they believe part-time burger flipping now considered a full time job is a sign the economy is turning around.
But were the election held today, we’d be looking at President-Elect Romney. We should at least enjoy it today.
Click over to read his full opinion.