Steve Deace wrote this a few minutes ago regarding the latest polling we are seeing in South Carolina and Nevada:
We are starting to see questionable polling methodology in NV and SC along the lines of what we saw prior to the Iowa Caucuses. Here are some examples. Please share with you friends.
In NV, the new CNN poll of that caucus assumes a turnout of about 24% of active voters in the state. Except NV is a closed caucus that less than 1% of the state’s voters took part in those caucuses four years ago. That’s an amazing 2300% increase in voter turnout. Um, yeah, good luck with that.
The last three public polls of SC assume a turnout of 1.5 million-2.1 million, except turnout in the state hasn’t gone above roughly 600,000 voters in the past three contested primary cycles. So again we have public polls assuming a turnout model increase of 100% or higher. That only happens in banana republics or when Putin is on the ballot.
Staying in SC, the Gravis Marketing poll says only 54% of the electorate will be evangelicals. But evangelicals were 65% of the electorate there in 2012, and 60% of the electorate in 2008.
One more note on SC, the State House GOP Caucus Poll people are touting claims 55% of the primary electorate will be senior citizens. But they were only 27% of the electorate in 2012, and 35% of the electorate in 2008. Did that many more people really get old in the Palmetto State all of a sudden?
We haven’t posted on it yet, but there is a new poll out of Nevada from CNN/ORC that puts Trump way ahead: Trump 45, Rubio 19, Cruz 17, Carson 7, Kasich 5, and Bush 1. This is the one Deace is referring to from this morning.