NBC News has a new nationwide surveymonkey poll out today, with a very large sample size of over 2400 that are Republican or who lean Republican, that shows Ted Cruz surging 8 points to second place into a tie with Ben Carson with 18%. Trump is of course still in first place with 28%.
The interesting thing about this poll is that we can see the history all the way back to April of this year, and in this new polling Cruz is higher than he’s ever been, especially as of late:
Also Carson was tied with Trump the last time this poll took place in late October, however he has fallen a significant amount to 18%. It looks like Trump has increased in the last 15 days or so a few points.
Rubio has increased, but only by a couple of points since the last poll.
Here are a couple of charts that show how the candidates are doing in a few subcategories:
Even though this is an online surveymonkey poll, they give it a error rate of +/- 2.9%, which isn’t bad compared to other polls.
Here’s the lowdown on the poll:
The NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted from November 15-17, 2015 among a national sample of 5,755 adults aged 18 and over and including a sample of 2,440 Republican voters and independent voters who lean Republican. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Overall results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points and the error estimate for the leaned Republican voters is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
We’ll see if other polls in the future bear out these results, but it’s great to see Cruz surging to 2nd place for a change. I just hope it sticks and gets even better as we approach Iowa.