Ted Cruz sits atop a new California poll at 25% with Donald Trump virtually tied with him at 23%, considering the margin of error is over 5%.
Here’s the rundown. Notice how much improved Cruz is from just two months ago. Impressive!
Wow Carly Fiorina dropped like a rock and Jeb! dropped quite a ways too.
Here’s the lowdown on the poll:
The findings come from a Field Poll completed December 16, 2015-January 3, 2016 among 1,003 registered
voters in California, including 325 Republicans considered likely to vote in the state’s June Republican
presidential primary election.
Interviews were administered by telephone using live interviewers in English and Spanish. Individual voters
were sampled at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter’s name
and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted with the voter on either their landline or
cell phone depending on the source of the listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter.
Up to four attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days
and times of day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the sample was
weighted to align it to the proper distribution of voters by race/ethnicity and other demographic, geographic
and party registration characteristics of the state’s registered voter population.
Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and
the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall
statewide sample is ± 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level and ± 5.6 percentage points for the
Republican primary voter sample. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the
sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the
distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other
potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design
and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors.