A new poll that came out on the 15th (before Rubio dropped out) has Trump in double digits over Cruz in Arizona:
Among Republicans, Trump leads with 31 percent. The business mogul has led in other Arizona surveys.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is second with 19 percent followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. They each get 10 percent.
They also point out that 30% of Republicans in Arizona remain undecided:
Thirty percent of Republicans planning to vote in the Arizona primary are undecided, according to Merrill.
This is just one poll so I wouldn’t put a lot of stock into it alone, especially considering Rubio is part of the candidate list.
But if this is a true representation of the electorate in Arizona, then it’s clear that Kasich staying in the race is just going to benefit Donald Trump and keep Cruz from being as competitive as he can.
If you take the Rubio voters and give 80% of them to Cruz (and I think that’s probably generous), that pushes him up to 27%, four points away from Trump.
If you take 80% of Kasich voters and give them to Cruz, he now leads by 4%. Still a very tight race.
And with the 30% undecided, there’s a very strong chance Cruz could win all 58 of Arizona’s delegates on Tuesday. But with Kasich staying in the race and getting as much as 10% of the vote, it handicaps Cruz.
Again this is just one poll and not the best since it wasn’t polled as a three man race. I simply use it to point out that Kasich needs to get out of the race if he’s serious about Trump not being the nominee.
Otherwise it would seem clear he’s pulling for a Trump presidency.