There are two national polls that show Trump with a lead today and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention them. Just as in 2012, the bulk of the polls were saying one thing and election day showed they were wrong.
The first one is Rasmussen that shows Trump up by two, but still within the margin of error:
Early results from their final debate are in, and Donald Trump remains barely ahead of Hillary Clinton in the White House Watch.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with a 43% to 41% lead over his Democratic rival. Five percent (5%) favor Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein earns three percent (3%) support. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 18-20, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
The second is an IDB/TIPP tracking poll that shows Trump only up by 1 point, well within the margin of error:
Results based on survey of 789 likely voters conducted from 10/15 – 10/20. Margin of error: +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party identification breakdown: (Unweighted) 262 Democrats/254 Republicans/254 Independents; (Weighted) 282/222/265.
To put these surveys in the larger context, here’s the RCP polling average for the last 10 days (click to enlarge):
So there you go. Maybe the race is as tight as Rasmussen and IBD claim, or maybe not. I guess we’ll find out on election day which is only about 18 days away.