Turkey has its eyes on the Syrian city of Manbij after it gets done driving the Kurds out of Afrin. But the US has a presence there and according to reports, we’d like to keep our troops there and keep the Turks away:
REUTERS – The key U.S. question about Turkey’s offensive in northwestern Syria is whether Ankara pushes on from Afrin to Manbij, where U.S. forces and their allies against the Islamic State militant group are on the ground, U.S. officials said on Monday.
Turkey shelled targets in northwest Syria on the third day of a campaign by its forces and Syrian rebel allies against Kurdish YPG fighters, which Ankara sees as allies of Kurdish insurgents who have fought the Turkish state for decades.
While the United States does not have forces in the area of Afrin, where the offensive is focussed, it does in Manbij to the east, raising the possibility of conflict between forces allied with Turkey and the United States.
Moreover, the United States hopes to use the YPG’s control of the area to give it the diplomatic muscle it needs to revive U.N.-led talks in Geneva on a deal that would end Syria’s civil war and eventually lead to the ouster of President Bashar Assad.
The United States and Turkey, while themselves allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, have diverging interests in the Syrian civil war, with Washington focussed on defeating Islamic State and Ankara keen to prevent Syria’s Kurds from gaining autonomy and fuelling Kurdish insurgents on its soil.
Preventing Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan from carrying out a threat to drive Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-backed umbrella group dominated by the YPG, out of Manbij is central for Washington, U.S. officials said.
“Manbij was liberated by the coalition (fighting Islamic State) and (this) would be looked at differently if Turkey started to go in that direction,” said one U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“The Turks have talked about it but there is no indication that they are going to go further east where we are,” he added. “At this stage in Afrin it’s a very different fight and a very different situation than if they do come further east.”
Erdogan and his government have been talking about it, a lot. First Afrin, then the bigger city of Mabij, which is double to triple the size of Afrin and much closer to the Euphrates river. I expect they are pretty serious about it as well. I read somewhere that they intend on creating a 18 mile zone in Syria along the border so they can send their Syrian refugees back to Syria.
Reuters continues…
Any Turkish operation in Manbij is likely to be met with serious U.S. concerns, with a number of U.S. troops in and around the city. The troops were deployed in March to deter Turkish and U.S.-backed rebels from attacking each other and have also carried out training and advising missions in Manbij.
“That would be a cause for concern and we’re monitoring it closely,” said a second U.S. official on condition of anonymity. “The protection of our forces is a top priority.”
This official added there had not been an impact on U.S. operations from Turkey’s Incirlik air base.
While much of the fighting against Islamic State has moved to small pockets, the United States would still need the YPG to hold territory, ensuring that the Islamist militant group does not re-emerge.
Because Turkey has the advantage here and I’m pretty sure we don’t want to get involved in a war or even a skirmish with them, I suspect we’re going to end up pulling out of Manbij before this is over.
Also, it’s worth noting that Turkish war planes have been bombing Afrin and Assad hasn’t done anything about it. Nada. Turkish troops even crossed the border this morning and are now actively fighting in Afrin. Seems like they are getting their way with little push back. We’ll see how that goes in Manbij.