If you consider that they oversample Democrats, oversell leads held by Democrats, undersell leads held by Republicans, and have tried to convince people that Hillary was going to win in 2016, the fact that CNN has even admitted that Biden’s theoretical CNN lead over Trump has NARROWED is pretty telling.
But they did. It’s 4 points now, with Trump surging from June.
Here’s the big question:
Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidates, and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party’s candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for?
And the result:
And on the eve of the party conventions, a majority of voters (53%) are “extremely enthusiastic” about voting in this year’s election, a new high in CNN polling in presidential election cycles back to 2003.
Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden’s advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%. It is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall.
Enthusiasm is a big scary word for Democrats. They hope to get some from Kamala Harris. They’ll probably get some from the convention, though maybe less this time since it will be “virtual.”
But the USPS thing isn’t the hot ticket they want, and with the economy recovering, people getting outdoors again, the Dems HAVE to get some enthusiasm on their side to match the Trump phenomenon, which is practically unprecedented in politics and caught all these pollsters flat-footed in 2016.
CNN keeps airing reports saying Trump and his people are worried they might lose. Yeah, seems to me it’s the Democrats who are worried. Obama is. They all should be.
But worry doesn’t win. Enthusiasm does. And Trump’s voters are chomping at the bit.