Atlas Intel, the most accurate pollster for 2020, has just released their final swing state polling and Trump leads in most battleground states.
Their data was collected yesterday and today:
Data collected from November 3-4: AZ (875 respondents); GA (1112); MI (1113); NV (707); NC (1219); PA (1840); WI (869). The margin of error is ±2 pp for PA, ±4 pp for NV, and ±3 pp for the other key states.
Data collected from November 1-4: MN (2065 respondents); MT (752); OH (1022); TX (2434); VA (2202). Margin of error is ±2 pp for TX, VA, and MN, ±4 pp for OH and MT
Here’s the breakdown:
ATLAS POLLS – SWING STATES
Among the battleground states, Trump leads in Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, while narrowing the 2020 margins in Virginia and Minnesota. However, Georgia and Pennsylvania, two of the most valuable states in the Electoral College, are close. pic.twitter.com/MNZUcLXNSA
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTION
With these results, the contest remains open on the eve of Election Day. Pennsylvania emerges as the state most likely to decide the race, with its 19 electoral votes potentially securing the Electoral College majority for Trump. pic.twitter.com/kIMK9XpzGP
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024
I really hope it isn’t this close, but this is what scares me about tomorrow. I want Trump’s lead to be well outside of the margin of error and most of these leads are within the margin. So I guess what I’m saying is I hope Atlas Intel intel is wrong and that Trump wins big in each of these states.