We’ve been reporting on a potential deal between Kevin McCarthy and his Republican opposition since yesterday morning and thus far nothing has changed.
So here we go again, reporting this morning on a deal that McCarthy is said to have offered his opposition that could potentially end the standoff in the Speaker fight.
Here’s the details via the Associated Press:
The contours of a deal that could make Republican leader Kevin McCarthy the House speaker have begun to emerge after three grueling days and 11 failed votes in a political spectacle unseen in a century.
McCarthy made no promises of a final vote that would secure him the speaker’s gavel, but glimmers of a deal with at least some of the far-right holdouts who have denied him support were emerging.
The agreement McCarthy presented to the holdouts from the conservative Freedom Caucus and others center around rules changes they have been seeking for months. The changes would shrink the power of the speaker’s office and give rank-and-file lawmakers more influence in drafting and passing legislation.
At the core of the emerging deal is the reinstatement of a House rule that would allow a single lawmaker to make a motion to “vacate the chair,” essentially calling a vote to oust the speaker. McCarthy had resisted allowing it, because it had been held over the head of past Republican Speaker John Boehner, chasing him to early retirement.
The chairman of the chamber’s Freedom Caucus, Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, who had been a leader in Trump’s efforts to challenge his presidential election loss to Democrat Joe Biden, appeared receptive to the proposed package, tweeting an adage from Ronald Reagan, “Trust but verify.”
Other wins for the holdouts include provisions in the proposed deal to expand the number of seats available on the House Rules Committee, to mandate 72 hours for bills to be posted before votes and to promise to try for a constitutional amendment that would impose federal limits on the number of terms a person could serve in the House and Senate.
Lest hopes get ahead of reality, conservative holdout Ralph Norman of South Carolina said: “This is round one.”
It could be the makings of a deal to end a standoff that has left the House unable to fully function. Members have not been sworn in and almost no other business can happen. A memo sent out by the House’s chief administrative officer Thursday evening said that committees “shall only carry-out core Constitutional responsibilities.” Payroll cannot be processed if the House isn’t functioning by Jan. 13.
I am much less optimistic at this point that such a deal will get McCarthy the 218 votes needed to win. Primarily because there are certain members who no longer trust McCarthy and even if they got the deal of a lifetime, I suspect they’d still refuse to vote for him.
The question is how many of these members are there that simply won’t vote for McCarthy. If it’s less than five he can still win. But if the number is more significant, then there’s no deal that can be made that will get him to 218 and he’ll probably be forced to pull his candidacy at some point. McCarthy bowing out of this fight is starting to seem like the most likely scenario and who knows what that will do to the caucus.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. The voting starts today at noon and we’ll of course have that for you here, and we’ll all get to see what happens.