Well well well.
A likely voter poll has finally come out affirming what we suggested was the case all along, that Ted Cruz really has a huge lead on Beto O’Rourke.
Here’s what the new poll is telling us:
new Quinnipiac likely voter poll in Texas Senate race: Cruz 54%, O'Rourke 45%
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) September 18, 2018
Here’s more from Quinnipiac:
Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz has a 54 – 45 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, his Democratic challenger, in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.
This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O’Rourke backers.
“The Texas U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O’Rourke, and Democratic hopes for an upset win there, have boosted talk of a Senate takeover. These numbers may calm that talk,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Congressman O’Rourke may be drawing big crowds and media attention, but Texas likely voters like Sen. Cruz better.”
Here’s how Cruz and Beto break down:
Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O’Rourke. Men back Cruz 57 – 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 – 32 percent. O’Rourke leads 97 – 3 percent among black voters and 54 – 45 percent among Hispanic voters.
Republicans back Cruz 94 – 6 percent, as Democrats go to O’Rourke 94 – 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O’Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz.
Texas likely voters approve 53 – 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 52 – 43 percent favorability rating.
O’Rourke gets a divided 43 – 42 percent favorability rating.
And here’s the lowdown on the poll:
From September 11 – 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 807 Texas likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.
So there you go.
As we always say this is just one poll and one poll a pattern does not make. But this does confirm my suspicions and I suspect other solid polls of likely voters will show similar results.
As an aside, this same poll puts Greg Abbott at +19 over his opponent. That’s gonna be a landslide.