Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has just released detailed post-war plans for Gaza and Joe Biden isn’t going to be happy about it.
For starters Israel is going to maintain military control over Gaza – which is a no brainer if you truly support Israel’s right to defend itself. They are going to create a buffer zone around Gaza on both the southern border in relation to Egypt – which means they will be entering Rafah – and the eastern Israeli border.
Secondly, they plan to put local “stakeholders with managerial experience” in charge of Gaza and they must have no links to terrorism. That includes Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, even though the latter’s name is not mentioned.
Here’s more from the New York Times:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel released on Friday his most detailed vision yet for a postwar Gaza, pledging to retain indefinite military control over the enclave while ceding the administration of civilian life to Gazans without links to Hamas.
The plan, if realized, would make it almost impossible to establish a contiguous Palestinian state in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank, at least in the short term. That would likely accelerate a clash between Israel and a growing number of its foreign partners, including the United States, that are pushing for Palestinian sovereignty after the war ends.
Mr. Netanyahu released his plan on the day that Israeli, Qatari, U.S. and Egyptian officials were set to meet in Paris in an effort to advance a deal for a cease-fire and the release of hostages captured by Hamas and its allies in their Oct. 7 attacks. While Israeli officials have indicated that they are open to making a deal to pause fighting and free captives, they have steadfastly rejected pressure to move toward a permanent cease-fire, insisting that they are prepared to wage a protracted campaign to destroy Hamas.
Mr. Netanyahu’s plan envisions the creation of an Israeli-controlled buffer zone along the length of Gaza’s border with Egypt, a move that risks inflaming tensions with the Egyptian government. That aspect of the plan would require Israel to invade Rafah, the southernmost city of Gaza, where most Gazans are currently sheltering, risking their mass displacement onto Egyptian territory, an outcome that Egypt has repeatedly warned against.
The plan also says Israel will seek to retain control over a sliver of land inside Gaza along the Israeli border, where its military is systematically demolishing thousands of buildings in order to create another buffer zone. Israel’s intention is to make it harder for militants in Gaza to repeat a raid like that of Oct. 7, in which Israeli officials say some 1,200 people were killed, although the United States and others have spoken out against any effort to reduce the size of Gaza.
The plan does not say whether Israeli settlers would be allowed to re-establish communities on Gazan soil, as Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing supporters are pushing for. A senior government official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a matter that puts the prime minister at odds with his base, said that there were no plans to resettle Gaza with Jews, but declined to say so on the record, leaving Mr. Netanyahu with room for maneuver in the future.
Other parts of the plan include:
- Handing administrative control to “local stakeholders with managerial experience” who are “not affiliated with countries or entities that support terrorism.” The reference to terrorism aims to exclude anyone that Israel says has connections to Hamas. And while the document does not explicitly mention the Palestinian Authority, the body that administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, the reference to local residents implicitly rules out the involvement of the authority’s leadership in the postwar setup — a position that is at odds with that of the Biden administration.
- The dismantling of UNRWA, the main U.N. agency operating in Gaza. Israel has accused 30 UNRWA workers of participating in the Oct. 7 attack. UNRWA’s leaders say the agency tries to ensure its 13,000 employees in Gaza uphold standards of neutrality, but they say it is not possible to track the private allegiances of all its employees.
- The overhaul of the Gazan education and welfare systems. Israel says schools and other public institutions in Gaza foment extremism.
- Opposing foreign recognition of a Palestinian state. The plan says that a final resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can only be achieved through bilateral talks between the two sides — an implicit rejection of hints by countries including Britain and France that they could unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state. Mr. Netanyahu has previously rejected the concept of an independent Palestinian state, but his plan released on Friday did not explicitly rule it out.
As I’ve said all along Biden will turn on Bibi when he decides not to leave Gaza and refuses to create a Palestinian state. And that’s even more true now than it was then, given how unpopular Biden has become with his base over his support for Israel’s defensive war in Gaza. I expect you will hear Biden angrily condemn this plan at his SOTU address in an attempt to win back some of those he’s lost. Because at the end of the day, Biden cares more about winning an election that he does about Israel being safe and secure.