CNN posted an interesting analysis of Trump’s support among black voters since 2016.
And their verdict is that Trump has increased his support among black voters in the last 2 years. Not as high as Rasmussen suggests, but it’s definitely an improvement.
Here’s the lowdown:
There is another poll out in which more than 30% of black voters supposedly approve of Trump’s job performance. Trump’s biggest fans have trumpeted this poll as a sign that he is breaking through with African-Americans. The problem is the poll is almost certainly incorrect.
Polls of higher quality such as Quinnipiac’s — probability-based polls that are transparent about their data — have consistently found Trump’s approval rating to be much lower. The President’s approval rating in these polls completed since July has averaged 12% with African-Americans. His disapproval rating has averaged 84%.
Here’s the thing though: It does actually seem that Trump has gained support among African-Americans since the 2016 election.
The network exit polls had Trump winning only 8% among black voters in 2016. Hillary Clinton took 89% of their vote. That is, Clinton won black voters by an 81-percentage-point margin.
Trump’s average net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) with blacks right now is -72 points. In other words, he’s shrunk his deficit by 9 points.
It gets better…
I would argue, though, that the President has made an even bigger improvement. To make an apples-to-apples comparison, we can look at a post-election Pew Research Center study with verified voters. Pew found that Clinton had an even larger margin 85-point margin with black voters, of 91% to 6%. If this study were correct, it would mean that Trump had doubled his black support since the election. (Note: Trump’s approval rating with blacks in a Pew poll in June, not included in our average, was 14%. Again, this suggests he has gained since the election.)
Wow. So not the crazy high Rasmussen levels, but still a solid improvement in black support over 2016.
Whether that will turn into actual votes remains to be seen and it also depends upon who the Democratic nominee will be in 2020.
But for now, it looks like Trump is making strides into the black community.
Read more of their analysis here…