Deputy Sec of State says Russia to invade Ukraine in next few weeks

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman suggests that based on what they see, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to happen in the next few weeks, between now and mid February:

She also suggests that Russia may wait until after the Beijing Olympics, as China’s president wouldn’t be happy if Russia were to invade during the olympics:

Here’s more from Reuters:

The Beijing Winter Olympics could affect the timing of any Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said on Wednesday, adding that Chinese President Xi Jinping would not be happy if the two were to coincide.

Sherman, who led a U.S. delegation in talks with Russian officials in Europe earlier this month, said she did not know whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had made the decision to invade, but that indications suggested an invasion could come between now and mid-February.

“We all are aware that the Beijing Olympics are beginning on February 4th, the opening ceremony, and President Putin expects to be there. I think that probably President Xi Jinping would not be ecstatic if Putin chose that moment to invade Ukraine,” Sherman said during a virtual conversation hosted by Yalta European Strategy.

“So that may affect his timing and his thinking.”

Putin on Tuesday weighed in on a diplomatic boycott of the Games by the United States and other Western nations over China’s human rights record, saying he opposed the “politicization of sport.”

The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine urged American citizens in Ukraine to consider leaving the country now, saying that the security situation in the country was “unpredictable due to the increased threat of Russian military action”.

Whether Russia waits until after the Beijing Olympics or not, it seems pretty certain that he is going to invade. In fact, the US has issued a new security alert to Americans in Ukraine, telling them to get out while they still can:

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