As you know Trump has officially reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran in the wake of the US pulling out of the Iran deal:
The Iran sanctions have officially been cast. These are the most biting sanctions ever imposed, and in November they ratchet up to yet another level. Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States. I am asking for WORLD PEACE, nothing less!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 7, 2018
As we pointed out yesterday, Trump is doing this in at least two phases. The second phase is when the sanctions on Iranian oil and gas industry and their banking system – that will come in November.
The problem for the US is that some of our European allies still want to do business with Iran, especially when it comes to oil and gas. Trump threw down the gauntlet earlier this year and is doing so again in this tweet, saying “anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States.”
To Trump’s credit, there have already been some European companies that have pulled back from Iran:
DAIMLER
German car and truck manufacturer Daimler has dropped plans to expand its Iran business.
“We have ceased our already restricted activities in Iran in accordance with the applicable sanctions”, Daimler said.
PSA and RENAULT
Peugeot manufacturer PSA began taking steps in June to suspend its joint venture activities in Iran while rival Renault has said it will adhere to the U.S. sanctions regime.
TOTAL
Total has said it will quit the multibillion-dollar South Pars gas project if it cannot secure a waiver from the U.S. sanctions – a request French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said last month had been rejected along with others by French corporations.
John Bolton told Fox Business this morning that they pushed off some of the sanctions until November to give companies time to cease their operations with Iran and he believes the companies that do continue doing business with Tehran will be insignificant:
“Now there may be some small European companies that continue to do business, but they will be insignificant,” John Bolton said during an interview with FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo on Tuesday. “Russia and China may continue to do business, but I don’t think they’re enthusiastic about this. They’re not going to be stepping up their efforts.”
Yesterday, before the sanctions went into effect, three European nations vowed to continue doing business with Iran:
Iran’s remaining partners in the 2015 nuclear deal vowed Friday to keep the energy exporter plugged into the global economy despite the US withdrawal and sanctions threat.Three European nations along with Russia and China met with Iran to offer economic benefits and assurances that would lessen the blow of sweeping US sanctions, two months after President Donald Trump walked away from the landmark nuclear deal.
They said they remained committed to the 2015 accord and to building up economic relations with Iran, including “the continuation of Iran’s export of oil and gas” and other energy products.
They also vowed to maintain financial channels, promote export credit cover and air, sea and overland transport links, and to work for the “the protection of companies from the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions”.
We’ll eventually see where this ends up, but for now Bolton feels like they are making a real difference in getting companies to comply with the sanctions. He also says they are already having an impact on Iran.
Here is his interview on Fox Business where he explains all of this: