You all know Nate Silver, he’s the media’s favorite poll analyst, and he’s pretty lefty-biased, though much of his analysis can be pretty decent at times. Well even he is calling out the media on their lies about the coronavirus spike:
There are still *way* too many stories about big spikes in cases when the cause of those spikes was a big increase in tests. And remember, it's a good thing when states start doing more tests! https://t.co/83EDe62YSs
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 16, 2020
At first, this was an understandable mistake. Most people haven't covered this sort of story before and the data is less straightforward than you might assume. But it's been 2+ months now. It's now a lazy, careless mistake. And it's increasingly verging into being dishonest.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 16, 2020
So, he’s right in this case. We’re seeing a lot of headlines about coronavirus spikes in various states right as they ease up on social distancing. It’s too perfect a story, it’s catnip for the media, right? BUT, there’s another explanation:
Oh FFS. 1/ https://t.co/FOim1xMHmg
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) May 16, 2020
Here's the 7-day rolling average of new cases in Texas. Looks pretty bad! 2/ pic.twitter.com/DR1AzzcUsu
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) May 16, 2020
BUT, here's the 7-day rolling average of tests in Texas. 3/ pic.twitter.com/UjXxcPwqA7
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) May 16, 2020
You can see a clear correlation. We’re seeing greater virus numbers simply because we’re testing more and seeing more of what’s out there. Now, that doesn’t mean we WON’T see a spike from easing social distancing. Perhaps we will. But it’s dishonest for the media to pretend this is it, or that they know this is it, without discussing the increase in testing….