Ground crumbling beneath Obama, new polls show

Apparently we’re not the only ones less than thrilled with President Obama. Even his most ardent supporters are second guessing his abilities. Investor’s Business Daily outlines three surveys that could mean trouble for our incumbent president:

1) A new Harvard University survey of more than 2,000 young voters, age 18 to 29, finds their support for Obama, so crucial to his 2008 victory, has dwindled.

They still like him better than a generic Republican. But more than a third of them (36%) are pretty sure Obama will lose. Less than a third (30%) think he’ll win. And another 32% aren’t really sure. Less than half approve of the president’s job performance. and — ouch! — after their 2008 vote, only 12% think the country is headed in the right direction.

2) For the first time a new Associated Press-GfK Poll finds a majority of American adults (52%) say the Democrat should be defeated come Nov. 6, while only 43% say he deserves a second term.

This comes after months of steady campaigning and fundraising, maneuvering and denouncing nefarious House Republicans.

It marks a sharp reversal from the poll outcome as recently as May. Back then, 53% said give Obama a second term and only 43% said “Can him!”

In overall job approval, Obama has reached a new low, 44% approving while 54% disapprove.

Among Democrats, Obama’s still good — 78% approve of the Chicagoan. As would be expected, very few Republicans (12%) approve of his performance.

Ominously, however, for his reelection chances, independents, who like youths were so crucial to Celebration City in 2008, have left the Obama fold in droves: His approval among that discerning crowd is down to 38%, while his independent disapproval now stands at 54%.

3) The National Journal’s Ron Brownstein takes a look inside some new numbers and writes:

“There’s an ominous trend for President Obama in the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll: not only is his overall approval rating lagging, but he’s lost as much (or even more) ground among groups that favored him in 2008 as among those who resisted him last time.”

Not surprisingly perhaps, those demographic groups that didn’t like Obama in 2008 still don’t — only more so. This ranges from a three point drop among those earning more than $100,000 a year to a 15-point drop among white independents.

What could provide a Jimmy Carter type verdict is Obama’s decline among those who used to believe in his change. Young whites, down 15 points. White college-educated women, down 10 points. Those earning from $75,000 to $100,000, down seven points.

Even among his once monolithic black fans, Obama has lost one-in-ten supporters.

Not counting early voting or all that vacation time, Obama has 326 days left to change those minds.

Money is certainly on Mr. Obama’s side. With a reported billion dollars as his campaign’s disposal, will it be enough to convince his disenchanted supporters? I hope not.

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