The Trafalgar Group has released its final poll for Florida and it’s an interesting one.
For the Senate they have…
Bill Nelson 47.3%
Rick Scott 49%
Undecided 3.7%
And for the Governor’s race…
Ron DeSantis 50%
Andrew Gillum 46.6%
Other 1.4%
Undecided 2.1%
Wow. Both Scott and DeSantis will win if Trafalgar Group’s strong reputation holds up. Here’s their credentials via Ballotpedia:
During the 2016 presidential election, Trafalgar Group correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the election in Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Electoral College vote. Cahaly’s method included asking respondents who they believed their neighbors were voting for. He said that these responses indicated to him that Trump would receive the votes of many who were reluctant to support Trump publicly. In November 2016, Cahaly told PoliZette, “I believe that demonstrates that there are still people indicating they are uncomfortable saying they will vote for [Trump], but will say that their neighbor will vote for him.”
The day of the election, Trafalgar Group projected Trump to win 306 electoral votes and Clinton to win 232. Trump won 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227.
Not only that, but they also predicted accurately that Roy Moore would win this run-off and that Karen Handel would beat Jon Ossoff in 2017:
Trafalgar Group published the following noteworthy polls in 2017:
Roy Moore leading Republican primary run-off by 16 points on September 25, 2017.
Karen Handel leading Jon Ossoff with 50.46 percent of the vote on June 19, 2017.
The point spread for Moore winning was 9, so they were a little high on Moore. But they were in the ballpark I’d say.
Again, all of that from Ballotpedia.
Take all of this with a grain of salt. It’s a poll, and just because they’ve been right in the past doesn’t mean they will be right now.
If for some reason you think they are some partisan hack polling group, let me point you to their poll for Debbie Stabenow and John James:
Stabenow 53%
James 44%
Ouch. Other polls are showing it much closer. But if Trafalgar Group is all that and a bag of chips, then James will get crushed tonight.
They also show McSally winning by +2 over Sinema, 47-45.
And they have Hawley beating McCaskill by +4, 48-44.
Last but not least, they have Ted Cruz crushing Betamax: 52-43.
So at the end of the night we’ll see how these final polling numbers hold up.