“If this poll is even remotely true, this is absolutely devastating for Biden”

There’s a new poll out today from the New York Times and Sienna that shows Trump with a five point lead on the senile Joe Biden.

But it isn’t the top level number that’s so devastating for Biden. It’s that Trump is gaining ground and even winning some groups that belonged to Biden in 2020.

Notice that Trump is getting 23% of the black vote in this poll. Here’s some important context from a recent USA Today article:

In 2016, Trump received the support of 8% of Black voters, according to exit polls. That support increased to 12% in 2020. The USA TODAY/Suffolk poll from January found that Trump’s support among Black voters has stayed the same at 12%. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s support has slipped from 87% in 2020, according to the Roper Center, to 63%.

Biden slips to 63%, which is nearly identical to what this new poll suggests at 66%. Because the slip is so stark, I’m inclined to believe that Trump’s numbers are closer to what this new poll suggests at 23%, not 12.

Also note that Trump is winning Hispanics by six points and he’s tying Biden on women.

I think Frank Flemming is right to say this looks devastating for Biden:

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