News is breaking all over the place this morning about a new variant that makes Delta look like a common cold. There’s not a lot of information about it yet but Ed Morrissey recommends the thread below from Dr. Jha:
Good thread here. Take a deep breath, but prepare wisely. https://t.co/2l1iQ5OAZq
— Ed Morrissey (@EdMorrissey) November 26, 2021
Here’s the full thread:
Every few months, we hear about anew variant
Most turn out to not be much
Well, unfortunately, there's a new variant B.1.1.529 that is concerning
What do we know so far? A few things but not a lot
Reminder: when it comes to variants, we focus on three things
Short thread
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) November 26, 2021
What are those three to pay attention to?
Is it more transmissible than current strain (Delta)?
Does it cause more severe disease?
And does have it more immune escape (will it render prior infections or vaccines less effective)?
So lets talk quickly about what we know
2/5
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) November 26, 2021
On transmissibility, data look worrisome
It has taken off quickly in South Africa
This graphs look concerning
But with case numbers in SA low right now, rapid takeover could be driven in part by other factors
So yes, am worried about transmissibility. But not sure
3/5 pic.twitter.com/kJOIs3GREB
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) November 26, 2021
The next issue is whether it causes more severe disease
We have no idea
Too early to tell — but obviously needs to be tracked closely
Third issue is around immune escape
Do antibodies generated by our immune system have a harder to neutralizing it?
4/5
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) November 26, 2021
And what about T-cells and their ability to manage infections?
Short answer? We don't know but there is at least some reason for concern
There are a series of mutations in key regions that may impact effectiveness of our vaccines
Render vaccines useless? No. Super unlikely
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) November 26, 2021
So let's track this closely
We'll know more in coming days to weeks
There will be those who will spread fear — and those who will downplay it
Please ignore both groups
This variant is concerning
We should ramp up testing (our PCR tests will still work)
6/7
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) November 26, 2021
In fact our PCR test should help us track B.1.1.529 when it arrives here in the US
And it surely will arrive here
So stay vigilant
Get vaccinated, boosted
Get the world vaccinated
And let's get more data to better understand what (if anything) we need to do differently
End
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) November 26, 2021
It is amazing that we have a new variant just in time for Christmas, just in time for winter…