We are told that the swing states that will decide the presidential election in 2024 consists of six states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In the last 24 hours we have seen new polling in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona that doesn’t look good for Joe Biden.
First up, Nevada. In a head to head matchup Trump is +5 in a new poll by Noble Predictive Insights. When you add in the other candidates running, Trump goes up +7 on Biden:
📊 NEVADA GE: @NoblePredictive
🟥 Trump 45% (+5)
🟦 Biden 40%
—
🟥 Trump 40% (+7)
🟦 Biden 33%
🟨 RFK Jr 11%
🟨 West 4%
🟩 Stein 2%
—
538: #56 (2.4/3.0) | 829 RV | 2/27-3/5https://t.co/o9h1DoKmcd pic.twitter.com/TJYISILAgg— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 14, 2024
Next up, Pennsylvania. A new Emerson poll shows Trump is up +4 over Biden. A Fox News poll shows Trump up +2 in a head to head matchup and a tie when all the other candidates are added.
🇺🇲 Pennsylvania GE: Emerson/The Hill
🟥 Trump 47% (+4)
🟦 Biden 43%With leaners
🟥 Trump 52% (+4)
🟦 Biden 48%538: #9 (2.9/3.0) | 3/10-13 | 1,000 RVhttps://t.co/t9VTqs9oGs pic.twitter.com/Q3fBjO50Yb
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 14, 2024
🇺🇲 PENNSYLVANIA POLL: Fox News
🟥 Trump 49% (+2)
🟦 Biden 47%
—
🟦 Biden 42% (=)
🟥 Trump 42%
🟨 RFK Jr 9%
🟩 Stein 2%
🟨 West 2%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP 49% (+3)
🟦 DEM 46%
—
Biden job approval: 45-54 (-9)
—
R45/D45/I10 | 3/7-11 | 1,149 RV | ±3%https://t.co/uQ515Mer6Y pic.twitter.com/cvpkxv02k8— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 13, 2024
Last up is Arizona, where Trump also leads Biden by +4 in a head to head match up for with all the candidates:
🇺🇲 ARIZONA POLL: Fox News
🟥 Trump 49% (+4)
🟦 Biden 45%
—
🟥 Trump 43% (+4)
🟦 Biden 39%
🟨 RFK Jr 10%
🟩 Stein 2%
🟨 West 1%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP 48% (+6)
🟦 DEM 42%
—
Biden job approval: 43-57 (-14)
—
R40/D30/I30 | 3/7-11 | 1,121 RV | ±3%https://t.co/w6LQPpFVar pic.twitter.com/TXlZiBjygk— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 13, 2024
Finally, here are the polling averages from FiveThirtyEight in these swing states and others. You see that Trump leads in nearly all of them:
NEW: @FiveThirtyEight polling average
• Georgia: Trump +7.8
• North Carolina: Trump +6.5
• Arizona: Trump +5.4
• Nevada: Trump +5.3
• Michigan: Trump +3.9
• Wisconsin: Trump +3.2
• Pennsylvania: Trump +0.6https://t.co/sOrrv5X06Q pic.twitter.com/3YZJ6TQr2J— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 13, 2024