Well, it looks like the age of Ben Carson could be upon us. In a new CBS/NYT national poll, Carson leads by 4 points where he was behind The Donald a couple of weeks ago by 6 points.
This is just one national poll which doesn’t make a pattern, but with Carson now leading in Iowa it might have some merit. This sampling error on this poll is +/- 4%:
Here’s the lowdown on the poll:
This poll was conducted by telephone October 21-25, 2015 among a random sample of 1,289 adults nationwide, including 1,136 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.
The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.
An oversample of registered voters who are Republican was interviewed for a total of 512 interviews with Republican registered voters. The results were then weighted in proportion to the adult population. The margin of error for the Republican registered voters is 7 percentage points.
The margin of error for the sample of 575 Republican primary voters is 6 percentage points.