New poll has Ted Cruz and Beta O’Rourke NECK AND NECK, but there’s one major problem with the poll…

by The Right Scoop

A new poll out by Emerson shows the Texas Senate race at a statistical tie between Ted Cruz and Beta O’Rourke:

The sample size was 550 votes but the sample was among REGISTERED voters, not likely voters, which means the poll isn’t even close to accurate.

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1034138319507087360

This has been a trend this summer for some pollsters to query registered voters instead of likely voters. But why are they still doing that? We’re just over 2 months from election day. They should all be using likely voter models now.

You can read the PDF of this Emerson poll here, but I wouldn’t bother.

Look, there’s no denying that the race has gotten tighter over the summer – even Cruz has admitted that. But a statistical tie? No way Jose, not in Texas.

I think once we start seeing more likely voter model polls come out, they’ll show the race at a number closer to double digits.


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