New poll shows debate HURT Fetterman and helped Dr. Oz

A new poll out yesterday from the state of Pennsylvania shows how the debate between Dr. Oz and John Fetterman hurt Fetterman and helped Dr. Oz.

The poll still shows Fetterman leading, but by much less than he was in September.

Via USA Today:

A rocky debate performance has eroded Democrat John Fetterman’s lead over Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania’s pivotal Senate race, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds.

The contest is up for grabs, the survey shows, with an unusually high 19% of independents undecided, even as early voting has opened.

Fetterman is at 47% and Oz is at 45%. In a USA TODAY Network poll taken in late September, Fetterman had led 46%-40%.

The only debate between the candidates cost support for Fetterman, who sometimes struggled with words in the aftermath of a stroke he suffered in May. More than half of those surveyed watched last week’s debate, and they overwhelmingly judged Oz as the winner, 62%-17%.

Seven percent of those now supporting other Senate candidates or undecided in the race say they would have voted for Fetterman if he hadn’t had a stroke.

The poll of 500 Pennsylvanians who are likely to vote or have already cast their ballots, taken by landline and cellphone on Oct. 27-30, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Note that Fetterman’s lead is within the margin of error and that all the polling together shows this race is very tight.

For example, Fox News has a poll out yesterday showing Fetterman up by +4 points. But The Hill/Emerson poll out yesterday shows Oz up by +1 points. A Susquehanna poll out yesterday also shows Oz up by +1 points.

Given that the USA Today poll shows 19% of independents undecided, that is what will likely decide the race. I’m guessing they will break for Oz given how bad the debate was for Fetterman, but we’ll find out for sure next week.

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