Via The Hill. Ok Trump’s lead is only by +0.2 in the RCP average, but still, the political winds have now shifted in Trump’s favor.
As Sean Trende at RCP points out, this is likely a convention bounce that could be snuffed out by a convention bounce for Hillary in a week. The more reliable polling, he notes, will take place in September.
But he does point out that it’s clear this election is no longer a gimmie for Clinton, that Trump can win this election and, if you think he can’t win, that you’re in denial:
So, 538 polls-only model now shows a 269-269 electoral vote tie right now. My little heart just skipped a beat. https://t.co/ei6gSHg3T8
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 25, 2016
OK, look. I get that this is a convention bounce, and convention bounces can be transitory. I would not be at all surprised if HRC wins. 1/
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 25, 2016
We really should check back in September, and see who is leading then, and by how much. 2/
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 25, 2016
My point is more the drum I've been beating since June. People are *looking* for reasons Trump won't win. Understandable. 4/
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 25, 2016
But it also distorts our analysis. For example, it wasn't inevitable Trump would get a bounce (Kerry '04, Romney '12). 5/
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 25, 2016
And it isn't inevitable that Clinton will get a bounce that cancels out Trump's (see Bush '92), though it is certainly possible. 6/
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 25, 2016
Regardless, the only real remaining argument as to why Trump just couldn't win was that he had a polling ceiling of 40% or so. 7/
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 25, 2016
That's pretty much gone.You don't have to believe Trump *will* win,but at this point if you don't think he *can*, you're in deep denial. 8/8
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 25, 2016