“The president’s position is stronger than head-to-head polling shows,” a Wall Street Journal poll analysis reveals today. Heading into the RNC, Trump’s pre-convention numbers show him behind Biden’s post-convention numbers. But looking deeper in the result shows CRUCIALLY important facts that the press don’t talk about.
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Trump down 9 behind Biden (the RCP average is Biden +7.6) but it’s not necessarily a question of raw support averages. And I’ll tell ya what else, that he’s this close in between the conventions while under an unprecedented barrage of fake news hyped up non-controversies is dazzling.
One crucial tell is that, when it comes to swing voters…
…Some 22% have a positive image of Mr. Trump, while only 11% have a positive image of Mr. Biden, the July poll found. They prefer a candidate who will confront the Washington establishment, a hallmark of Mr. Trump’s pitch to voters, over one who makes an appeal based on competence and compassion, key themes during the Democratic convention. In addition, these voters want Republicans to lead the next Congress rather than Democrats, 42% to 25%.
They like him. Biden not so much. And that’s a critical thing to get. Biden is still trying to shore up the liberal base, who want to hear about the green new deal and his support for rioting. Things that will burn him with swing voters, white voters, the suburbs … all areas where Trump’s steam is picking up.
That’s not the only incredibly important detail either.
At this point in the last election, Mr. Trump trailed his Democratic opponent by 9 percentage points in Journal/NBC News polling, as he does today. Still, Mr. Trump won the Electoral College, which decides the president, that November.
The analysis shows that there are gains to be had by the handful for the GOP. People are still pretty happy with the strength of the economy, despite bad Covid news and the endless barrage of negative reporting from hack media outlets. And he’s holding steady with Hispanic voters, an important demographic that is not committed to Democrats and is largely not amenable to the far left agenda.
The media can barely even motivate themselves to fawn over Biden after his convention. Just imagine in a few weeks when they’re back to nothing but Trump news.
You can call it spin when a between-convention poll showing Trump under Biden is taken as a positive. But I’ll call that surface-level analysis you burying your head in the sand, thanks.