With the GM autoworkers’ strike that cost 42,000 jobs, expectations were low for today’s job report. However it came in this morning well above expectations:
CNBC – Nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 in October as the U.S. economy overcame the weight of the GM autoworkers’ strike and created jobs at a pace well above expectations.
Even with a decline of 42,000 in the motor vehicles and parts industry, the pace of new jobs well exceeded the estimate of 75,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The loss of jobs came due to the General Motors strike that has since been settled.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.6%, in line with estimates, but remains around the lowest in 50 years. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons also edged up to 7%.
The unemployment rate for African-Americans nudged lower to 5.4%, a new record. Also, the total employment level as measured in the household survey jumped to 158.5 million, also a new high.
The pace of average hourly earnings picked up a bit, rising one-tenth of a percent to a year-over-year 3% gain, also in line with estimates. The average work week was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
Black unemployment hit a new record too!
Not only did this month beat expectations, but the last two months did way better than originally thought:
Along with the better than expected performance in October, previous months’ counts were revised considerably higher.
August’s initial 168,000 estimate came all the way up to 219,000 while September’s jumped from 136,000 to 180,000.Together the new estimates added 95,000 positions for the two-month period, bringing the three-month average to 176,000, which is well above the pace needed to keep the unemployment rate around its current level.
For the year, monthly job creation now averages 167,000 compared to 223,000 in 2018.
The report helps further quell worries that the U.S. economy is teetering toward recession and helps affirm the assessment from most Federal Reserve officials
Trump responded to this report with “USA rocks!”:
Wow, a blowout JOBS number just out, adjusted for revisions and the General Motors strike, 303,000. This is far greater than expectations. USA ROCKS!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2019
I’m honestly not sure where he gets the 303,000 number, but he’s right that the jobs report is good this month. I’m sure he’ll talk about it as his rally tonight in Tupelo, Mississippi tonight.