The polls are closed in the Ohio special election between Troy Balderson (R) and Danny O’Connor (D). As we told you this morning, the election is very close based on recent polls:
But polls don’t really matter in the end, votes do.
At the moment, with just 5% in, O’Connor has a significant lead: 63% to 37%.
But from what I’m reading, that’s expected as its mostly coming from the early vote. So it will be interesting to see if Balderson can overcome deficit and how quickly.
We will update you of course on the vote counts as they come in (refresh from time to time to see our progress).
Here’s a few tweets to consider on the topic:
Here's my latest estimate of what Danny O'Connor (D) needs in each #OH12 county to win today's special election (2-party vote share):— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 7, 2018
Early vote a good indicator of passion: Dems passionate in Columbus burbs, Balderson's friends/neighbors passionate in Zanesville. But it's not a good predictor of who will win #OH12.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 8, 2018
Our estimates said O'Connor (D) needed ~42% in Muskingum; he'll probably end up below that based on EV. But Balderson (R) was always going to get a hometown boost there (question was how much), so it's not a deal-breaker for O'Connor. Need to see *a lot* more precincts.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 8, 2018
Some #OH12 precincts trickling in.— WOSU News (@wosunews) August 8, 2018
O'Connor at 61.5 percent of the vote compared to 37.7 percent for Balderson.
So far, just 15 out of 591 precincts reporting.
VOTE UPDATE (continuous):
O'Connor (D) 24,078 61%— Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) August 8, 2018
Balderson (R) 14,957 38%
3% reporting, 23 of 591 precincts #OH12
Results are coming in more quickly now. 49 precincts reporting for #OH12— WOSU News (@wosunews) August 8, 2018
O'CONNOR: 26,836 (56.7%)
BALDERSON: 20,167 (42.6%)
MANCHIK 351 (0.7%)
So far, O'Connor is leading in just Franklin and Delaware counties.— WOSU News (@wosunews) August 8, 2018
Balderson leads in Licking, Marion, Morrow, Muskingum and Richland counties. #oh12
O'Connor (D)29,76757%— Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) August 8, 2018
72 of 591 (12%) precincts reporting #OH12
With 31% of precincts reporting (plus early votes) in all of #OH12, O'Connor holds 53-46 lead. A good chunk of conservative Licking County came in, which gave Balderson a big boost.— Daily Kos Elections (@DKElections) August 8, 2018
With just under ⅓ of the vote in, Balderson has cut the #OH12 margin to single digits. (+7%)— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 8, 2018
The fact that things are thisclose right now show that the @GOP base is disinterested and swing voters are disillusioned in Ohio.https://t.co/7fKrKOJaAF pic.twitter.com/qmCeKEiI3y
Danny O'Connor (D) - 57,730 w/ 52.11% of the total vote— dog (@IntelDoge) August 8, 2018
Troy Balderson (R) - 52,324 w/ 47.23% of the total vote
288 of 591 total precincts have reported polling results, or 48.73%
In #OH12 50% reporting (297 of 591 precincts)— Jim Heath (@JimHeathTV) August 8, 2018
O'Connor leads Balderson 52%-47%.
65% of Franklin County reporting. Only 2% of Delaware County (heavily Republican) is reporting
BREAKING: With 59 percent of precincts reporting, O'Connor's lead over Balderson shrinks to 2,000 votes.— WOSU News (@wosunews) August 8, 2018
66% precincts reporting and Balderson is ahead for the first time tonight in OH 12 pic.twitter.com/8hd2DYKJHF— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) August 8, 2018
Deleted that last tweet - had the names flipped incorrectly.— Elena Schneider (@ec_schneider) August 8, 2018
But Danny O'Connor is back in the lead with 73.9% in >>
Race for #OH12 is razor tight with 75% of precincts reporting.— Kristin Fisher (@KristinFisher) August 8, 2018
Balderson (R) 49%
O'Connor (D) 50%
O’Connor up by a smidge:
Can it get any closer???
Balderson up by a half percent!
And we’re back to a virtual tie!
Balderson back up by around 700 votes!
Balderson takes a +1500 vote lead with 98.82% reporting!
Balderson takes a stronger lead (barley)!
Delaware County has reported full results on its website, but state BOE is still 7 precincts short.— Mike DeBonis (@mikedebonis) August 8, 2018
By my math, with all precincts reporting:
Balderson 101,566 (50.16%)
O'Connor 99,800 (49.29%)
Manchik 1,127 (0.56%)
0.87-pt victory is outside OH auto recount margin.
With 100% reporting:
So I guess that means Balderson has won!
“NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers today congratulated Congressman-Elect Troy Balderson on his victory in the OH-12 special election, saying:
“I’m proud that my fellow central Ohioan, Troy Balderson, will join me in Congress.
“Congratulations to Congressman-Elect Balderson on his hard-fought victory tonight. Nancy Pelosi and her liberal donors flooded this district with money and ads in an attempt to buy this seat. However, Troy’s focus never wavered from the issues central Ohioans care about like fighting opioids, creating jobs, and lowering taxes.
“The NRCC mobilized quickly, holding Danny O’Connor accountable for his hypocrisy on Nancy Pelosi and promoting Troy’s record of accomplishment. We were proud to stand with Troy every step of the way.””
The major newsers haven’t yet called the race, but I can’t see how Balderson doesn’t pull this out now.
Trump congratulates both Balderson….and himself!
When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good. After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. He will win BIG in Nov.— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 8, 2018
UPDATE: @NBCNews: #OH12 race remains too close to call due to current vote count and provisional ballots that still need to be counted.— NBC Politics (@NBCPolitics) August 8, 2018
Provisional ballots will be counted within the next 10 days.
The vote then must be certified by Aug. 24.