This morning Vladimir Putin gave a presidential address to his nation as an angry Russian military commander is seeking to overthrow him.
Before I get to the Putin address, here’s a little background on what’s going on in Russia. Warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin is the commander of the Wagner Private Military Company and has been fighting for Russia in Ukraine, among other places. In short, they are angry at Putin over how the war is going:
Warlord Prigozhin’s army has already crossed into Russia and the move follows months of feuds between Wagner and Moscow, which recently have developed into accusations by the group that they have come under actual attack by theoretically allied Russian forces. Prigozhin accuses the Russian government, and particularly Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu of corruption and incompetence and says his army is now on a “march for freedom” to Moscow.
Per an intelligence digest by Britain’s Ministry of Defence this morning, the Wagner Mercenaries are proceeding towards Russia without meeting resistance and have occupied Rostov-on-Don, the “HQ which runs Russia’s military operations in Ukraine”. Given how little fighting there is as Wagner’s troops move north through Rostov and Voronezh, it seems likely Russian security forces “have likely remained passive”, in other words, waved the mercenaries through.
Here’s another summary explanation from AG Hamilton no Twitter:
“There is a lot of resentment from Wagner and Russians generally due to the costs of the war. They don’t care about this war but are forced to fight it and are losing. Now comes Wagner, only group perceived as having some success, and their leader is openly blaming the lies and corruption of the military/defense leadership for what is happening. That makes him a target for that leadership. He’s publicly acknowledging that Russia is losing and it’s costing them up to 1K Russians per day, which they all know but weren’t allowed to acknowledge … and doing so equals a prison sentence. So YP likely felt it was him or them at this point to fight for survival and there is far more loyalty to him because of the success Wagner has had than to these corrupt MoD leaders. So he’s taking his shot and he has a lot of secret support, including in the defense apparatus.”
I should add that Prigozhin says he’s trying to overthrow Putin without interfering with the war effort in Ukraine. He doesn’t want to be responsible or blamed for Russia losing the war.
This morning Putin addressed his nation over this warlord’s march to Moscow, calling them treasonous and betrayers and vowed to react harshly to deal punishment to this group:
In a speech on Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to suppress an armed rebellion led by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who claims to have taken control of a southern city to remove the military leadership.pic.twitter.com/T2mXwRRyBT
— Simon Ateba (@simonateba) June 24, 2023
I haven’t seen anyone predicting that Prigozhin can be successful against Putin. His forces apparently number only about 25k and some feel he’ll be crushed by Putin. But AG Hamilton raises an interesting question:
25K fighters usually wouldn’t be enough to take out the leadership of a country like Russia, but the real question now is whether anyone is actually willing to fight a civil war to save the current leadership?
The level of resistance so far is incredibly limited.
— AG (@AGHamilton29) June 24, 2023
UPDATE: Reports are now that the Prigozhin has ordered his troops to stop assault on Russia:
MOSCOW (AP) – Wagner chief says he has ordered his mercenaries to halt their march on Moscow to avoid shedding Russian blood.
— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) June 24, 2023
BREAKING: Wagner Group leader Prigozhin agrees to stop his attack against Russia.
Belarusian president Lukashenko held talks with Prigozhin just now.
Prigozhin has agreed to "stop the movement of armed persons on the territory of Russia and to take further steps to deescalate."
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 24, 2023
UPDATE: Here’s the deal Putin made with Prigozhin…
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov:
– charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
– Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
– Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
– No word on potential MOD leadership changes— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023