Fox News got their hands on a memo by the RNC that details some of the highlights from internal polling they’ve done that show Trump in a much stronger position that other polling:
FOX NEWS – President Trump is winning in key battleground states and “voters overall” support re-electing him, a Republican National Committee (RNC) memo obtained by Fox News claims.
The memo comes amid reports of the president struggling in polls putting him up against potential 2020 opponents, such as Democratic front runner, former Vice President Joe Biden.
But according to the RNC, its own massive data operation told a different story. According to the numbers, Trump has a higher approval than disapproval rating in the battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania while a majority of Florida voters (53 percent) support re-electing him.
“One thing everyone should have learned from the 2016 election is that public polling is often wrong and especially bad at measuring support for President Trump,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement to Fox News.
“That is why the Republican National Committee built a world-class data program that gives us information we can rely on. The truth is that President Trump is in a remarkably strong position to win reelection. Our internal polling has him winning in key battleground states across the country and sporting incredibly strong approval numbers across the board.”
I would note that Fox News hasn’t seen the actual polling, but only the internal memo based on the polling. So there’s no way to judge the polling metrics.
So, what about Democrats?
The memo notably didn’t mention Biden but claimed that other Democratic contenders received negative image ratings in many of the states the party modeled. Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Kamala Harris, D-Calif., — typically in third or fourth place in polling for the Democratic nomination — faced negative image ratings in each of the states the RNC polled.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., encountered negative ratings in many of the states that the party would need to win in order to beat Trump in 2020. In Iowa, for example, the progressive underdog faces a -12 image rating before he faces off against Biden in the first caucuses of the Democratic primary season.
And while the memo didn’t name each of the proposals the RNC polled, it generically cites “Democratic policies” — which likely included Sanders’ and Warrens’ proposals to offer “free” college tuition.
“Every single state we tested widely rejects Medicare-for-All, including key states like Florida where it’s upside down by -15 points, or Ohio, where it’s upside down by -18 points,” the memo read.
The Bottom Line…
“The Bottom Line is we are confident that between a soaring economy and an unpopular Democratic field with even more unpopular policy proposals, the President is in a strong position to win re-election.”
I think that’s probably a decent assessment and, at the very least, one I’d like to believe.
But as I’ve said before, it’s too early to have reliable election polling. Whatever you might think of this RNC memo and the polling it’s based on, it’s gonna be the general election before we have any meaningful election polling with regard to Trump and a lot can happen between then and now.