Trafalgar pollster Robert Cahaly is now saying that some MAGA voters are going to be nearly impossible to poll accurately and estimate for the election.
He blames this on Biden’s angry rhetoric and policies toward MAGA voters.
Because of this he argues the Republican wave will be bigger in November than polls suggest, including his, and he explains why below:
In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
I call this new group “submerged voters”. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.
The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
I hope he’s right about these submerged voters because the polling isn’t looking as good as I was hoping it would. Unfortunately the absurdly over-the-top rhetoric by Democrats on the abortion issue will certainly increase the Democrat turnout somewhat. But with any luck these ‘submerged voters’ will push us way over the top in both the House and Senate.