This morning Trump announced the new GDP numbers, saying they are higher than the unemployment rate for the first time in 100 years:
The GDP Rate (4.2%) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9%) for the first time in over 100 years!
The GDP Rate (4.2%) is higher than the Unemployment Rate (3.9%) for the first time in over 100 years!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2018
While Q1 of this year was only 2.2%, there were reports last week that they are revising Q2 up from 4.2 to 4.4%. I assume he’s referring to the Q2 number in his tweet.
They are also setting their expectations for Q3 at 4.4%.
Trump also took a shot at Democrats for their GDP numbers from 2016:
If the Democrats had won the Election in 2016, GDP, which was about 1% and going down, would have been minus 4% instead of up 4.2%. I opened up our beautiful economic engine with Regulation and Tax Cuts. Our system was choking and would have been made worse. Still plenty to do!
If the Democrats had won the Election in 2016, GDP, which was about 1% and going down, would have been minus 4% instead of up 4.2%. I opened up our beautiful economic engine with Regulation and Tax Cuts. Our system was choking and would have been made worse. Still plenty to do!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 10, 2018
The annual GDP for 2016 was 1.6%, which is pretty terrible. The economy clearly is moving a lot better than it was under Obama, but even he had a couple of quarters of 5% growth back in 2014. They were also offset, however, by really poor quarters, which kept Obama’s annual GDP numbers below 3%, often well below.
If the economy now can keep this +4% growth going, then we’ll see an annual GDP of over 3.7% for 2018, which will be the first time since 2005. And next year should be even better.
I would add that if Trump could get trade squared away so that these trade tariffs are gone, it would be even better. Who knows, maybe +5%.